In catching up on the Canadian news from the CBC today, I discovered something that had passed me by from last Friday. I had heard of the shakeup of Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s cabinet, tweaking a few portfolios to bring in people who will (hopefully) improve the job the Conservative Party is doing. This was most needed for Harper in the environment area, where discontent with the Tories’ actions on climate change and the Kyoto Protocols is leaving the party vulnerable. In terms of minority government viability, Harper’s is rapidly aging, and steps were required to shore up their visibility in this area as well as getting some action accomplished.
But suddenly, as of last Friday, the dynamics of potential elections may have changed. And once again, a floor crosser is key to the situation. Wajid Khan, an Ontario Liberal Party M.P., has chosen to change parties and work with the Tories. This has been expected, apparently, as Mr. Khan has been advising the Prime Minister on the Middle East since August 2006, but it still shakes the balance of power. It raises the number of Conservative seats back to 125 (returning to the number before the ejection of Garth Turner earlier in 2006), but dropping the Liberals to 101 seats. The remaining split falls out as: 2 independents [1], the separatist Bloc Québécois with 51 seats…and the far left New Democratic Party with 29 seats — the exact number that Mr. Harper needs to pass critical bills.
This little shakeup is ironic in one way. It was Belinda Stronach, one of the founders of the current Conservative Party, who crossed the floor in 2005 to help keep the Grit government of Paul Martin alive on a budget vote — and, incidentally, get a cabinet post of her own. The yelps from the Tories could be heard down here in Alabama; but that didn’t stop them from luring a former Martin cabinet member, David Emerson, to himself jump parties and join in Mr. Harper’s first cabinet (he still holds his portfolio in the current shakeup). Now another defection benefits the Tories, and they’re not going to turn their noses up at it.
Will this keep the Conservatives in power beyond the 18-month average that minority Canadian governments usually last? That depends on how much Harper is willing to flex to accommodate the NDP; and, conversely, how much the Dippers’ Jack Layton is going to try to extract from Mr. Harper as the price of his support. Mr. Layton is again in the position of kingmaker; the NDP were the other factor in the 2005 Liberal equation, but that equation swung when Mr. Layton decided it was politically convenient for the NDP to help force an election. In an interview with CBC’s Heather Hiscox, Mr. Layton is promising only to work with the Tories on an issue-by-issue basis. They will surely demand stronger environmental action than Harper was planning on taking; but the NDP’s strongly social platform will be unpalatable to many of the Tory backbenchers. The NDP’s total support will not, of course, be needed on every piece of legislation. But if the key items that Layton won’t compromise on are not handed to him by Harper, the government could fall by July or August.
And Mr. Harper might be willing to take the risk. It seems that many in the Conservatives can only just handle working with the Liberals, who are a center-left party. If Harper accommodates the Dippers too much for their taste, they could start rebelling in the party caucus, and even try to force a leadership fight; if Mr. Harper lost such a race, it would mean a new Prime Minister for Canada without a change in party — assuming that the other parties don’t try to capitalize on Tory disarray. I doubt Harper will go so far as to anger the caucus that much.
So let’s see if it’s time to reset the campaign clock; the Harper government may have a few months more life left to it than was previously estimated.
[1] Mr. Turner’s blog was one of the reasons for his ejection from the Conservative caucus; his take on the jumping of Khan can be read here and here, and I link to The Turner Report in my blogroll under News and Politics.
Peace be to you.
Additional Technorati tag(s): Conservative Party of Canada, Stephen Harper, Liberal Party of Canada, Bloc Quebecois, New Democratic Party, Jack Layton, Wahid Khan, Belinda Stronach, David Emerson
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